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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Political Risk
Trump Leads Biden In Key Swing States
A new survey of swing states from Bloomberg/Morning Consult has found that Biden’s recent polling bump in key battleground states, “has mostly evaporated as a deep current of pessimism about the trajectory of the US economy hurts his standing with voters.”
- Bloomberg notes that, “Biden is ahead in just one of the seven states most likely to determine the outcome of his matchup with Donald Trump, leading Michigan by 2 percentage points. Biden trails the presumptive GOP nominee slightly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and his deficit in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina is larger.”
- Bloomberg adds: “Those results are largely a return to the previous state of the presidential race, before a strong State of the Union address appeared to power Biden in March to his best showing in the monthly poll since it began in October.”
- The survey runs counter to recent polling which has appeared to point towards a resurgent Biden campaign, buoyed by a significant cash advantage over Trump and data suggesting that third-party candidates may siphon more votes from Trump than Biden.
Figure 1: Presidential Election Swing State Polling
Source: Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Protest Vote For Haley In PA Sends Warning To Trump
Former GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley secured roughly 17% of the vote share in the Pennsylvania Presidential Primary yesterday, despite former president Donald Trump having wrapped up the presumptive nomination months ago. The results are a major warning sign for Trump in a state which could determine the winner of the presidential election in November.
- Politico notes that, “Pennsylvania has a closed primary, meaning those are all registered Republicans. Her numbers were even higher in important suburban counties outside Philadelphia. By comparison, Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.), the main option for Democrats to vote against Biden, got 7%.”
- Axios notes: “Trump dominated the Republican primary, delivering decisive wins in every GOP primary state, but … In the key swing states of Arizona and Wisconsin, more than one-fifth of GOP primary voters cast a ballot for a non-Trump candidate during the state's primary contests.”
- The protest vote against President Biden, whilst more organised, has failed to register the same vote share - In Wisconsin and Arizona, just over 10% of primary voters selected a candidate other than Biden.
Figure 1: Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary
Source: Axios
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.