MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Weds; Liquidity Unchanged

MNI BRIEF: Slow Rate Hikes Expected - BOJ's Noguchi

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1020 Thurs; -5.02% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1020 THURS VS 7.1025

MNI BRIEF: BCB's Campos Neto: 'Not Afraid To Do What's Needed'

MNI:AUSTRALIA MAR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +3.8%

MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN FEB +$51.6B

US Treasury Auction Calendar

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

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MNI China Press Digest April 18: Economy, U.S., Premier Li

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MNI picks key stories from today's China press

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LATEST INSIGHT

MNI BRIEF: Fed Well-Positioned To Wait, Gather Data - Mester

Cleveland Fed president says if inflation doesn't move down to 2% then interest rates will stay higher for longer.

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MNI BRIEF: BLS's New Tenant Rent Index Sees Further Drop in 1Q

The rent component of the official CPI lags measures of market rents.

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MNI BRIEF: US Firms See Slow, Steady Inflation -Fed Beige Book

Overall economic activity and employment increased "slightly" since late February, the Fed said in its report on current conditions.

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MNI BRIEF: Brazil Says FX Action Only for Dysfunction -BCB Gov

The Brazilian Central Bank judges its criteria for intervention had not been met, despite the sharp depreciation of the real over the preceding week.

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Political Risk

Trump May Have Smoother Path To Electoral College Win

Doug Sosnik, a former senior advisor to former President Bill Clinton, has published analysisof the 2024 Electoral College outlook in the New York Times, concluding that former President Donald Trump likely has a smoother path to the 270 votes needed to secure the White House than President Biden.

  • Sosnik writes: “If the election remains close but Mr. Biden is unable to regain support from the core group of voters who propelled him to victory in 2020 — young and nonwhite voters — then we could be headed to a repeat of the 2016 election. The outcome of that election was decided by fewer than 80,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
  • Sosnik adds that, “Last week’s abortion ruling in Arizona, and the likely abortion ballot initiatives in that state and Nevada, give Mr. Biden the possibility of being re-elected even if he loses Michigan.”
  • Sabato's Crystal Ball today shifted two key Arizona races towards Democrats in light of the "blockbuster state court decision," on abortion: The open Senate race from "toss-up" to "lean-democrat" and the Republican-held 6th district from "lean-Republican" to "tossup." The rating changes suggest that the abortion ruling could also benefit Biden at the top of the ticket.
  • Betting and prediction markets continue to see the race as an effective dead-heat after Biden erased Trump's early advantage.
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Trump Considers Middle Class Tax Cuts

Reuters reportingthat former President Donald Trump has, “indicated to advisers” that he may be open to new middle-class tax cuts if he is re-elected for a second term in the White House, but notes that sources say Trump is yet to make a firm commitment.

  • Reuters reports that among the ideas, "is a cut to the federal payroll tax... a move that could lower the flow of money into the Social Security and Medicare trust funds and open Trump to criticism from Democrats...”
  • The reports states that Trump's economic advisers are seeking a payroll tax cut, similar to one which was proposed, but never acted upon, in 2020 to boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • The report add that other ideas include, “an increase in the so-called standard deduction on year-end tax returns and a cut to the marginal income tax rate for middle-income households… Taken as a whole, the conversations indicate that Trump and his advisers are serious about substantial tax cuts if he beats Democratic President Joe Biden in the November general election.”
  • Lisa Desjardins at PBS notes on Trump and Biden's respective tax plans: “Both would keep cuts in place for households making under $400,000 annually, but they have very different visions beyond that. Trump would keep all individual and corporate cuts. President Biden would like to raise the corporate rate from 21 to 28 percent, and Biden's plan would bump up high-income earners from 37 percent to 39.6 percent.”
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US

Biden Expected To Unveil New China Tariff Plan In Pittsburg Speech Shortly

President Biden is shortly due to deliver a speech in Pittsburg, Pennsylvania where he is expected to announce the White House is considering tripling tariffs on some Chinese metals. LIVESTREAM

  • The move, dsigned in part to outflank former President Donald Trump’s punitive tariff plan, comes strategically in a state which is critical to Biden's bid to secure re-election in November. It is likely part of a broader set of upcoming policy proposals to offset the risk to US and global markets from Chinese industrial overcapacity.
  • Bloomberg reports: “Biden will propose new 25% tariffs on certain Chinese steel and aluminum products as part of an ongoing review, while the US also launches a formal probe into China’s shipbuilding industry. Biden will reiterate that United States Steel Corp., based in Pittsburgh, should remain American-owned.”
  • NEC Director Lael Brainard told reporters: “The president understands we must invest in American manufacturing, but we also have to protect those investments and those workers from unfair exports associated with China’s industrial overcapacity.”
  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said yesterday: “While in Guangzhou and Beijing this month, I was able to have frank discussions with senior Chinese officials regarding China’s industrial policy practices and the negative spillovers that overcapacity can create for the global economy. These are concerns I hear not only from American firms, but from many others as well. And I continue to believe that addressing overcapacity and broader macroeconomic imbalances can help China’s own economy.”
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US

House Releases Text Of USD$95 Billion National Security Package

The United States House of Representatives Appropriations Committee has released the final text of House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) USD$95 billion national security supplemental package ahead of a vote on Saturday evening.

  • Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) said in a statement: “I know this to be true: if we don’t help our friends in time of need, soon enough, we won’t have any friends at all. The time is now to act." Summary of the final package, per the Committee:

The Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (text) [USD$26 billion]

  • Replenishes the Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems, critical resources that protect civilians and have no offensive capabilities.
  • Procures defensive weapons, artillery, and munitions.
  • Backs U.S. military operations responding to Iranian-backed terror.
  • Restocks defense articles and services provided to Israel.

The Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (text) [USD$61 billion, of which $23 billion will used to replenish domestic stockpiles]

  • Provides weapons and lethal assistance to Ukraine to support their fight against Putin’s forcible invasion and attack of a sovereign nation.
  • Procures advanced weapons systems, defense articles, and defense services.
  • Supports U.S. defense initiatives in the region.
  • Strengthens transparency, monitoring, and oversight of all aid provided.
  • Requires cost-matching requirements from other U.S. allies and implements a repayment agreement from the government of Ukraine.

The Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (text) [USD$8 billion]

  • Strengthens deterrence over Beijing’s growing military provocations around Taiwan.
  • Invests in submarine, dry dock construction, and production of artillery and critical munitions.
  • Curbs the Chinese Communist Party’s strategy to acquire control over the Indo-Pacific region.
  • Enhances security cooperation with regional partners and supports U.S. military operations.
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MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1020 Thurs; -5.02% Y/Y

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