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MNI BRIEF: Brazil Sets Weaker 2025 Fiscal Goal

Government will change fiscal target to a zero primary deficit as share of GDP in 2025, the same goal as 2024.

MNI UK Inflation and Labour Preview - April 2024 Release

It’s another key week for UK data, with the highlights being labour market data due for release on Tuesday and inflation data due Wednesday.

Political Risk

The Soft Yen May Weaken The Wage-Price Relationship

The BOJ is concerned the soft yen could weaken the wage-price relationship --On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

Markets Wary As Israel Vows To Respond

Despite significant pressure for restraint, Israel has apparently decided on a “forceful” response but in a way that won’t escalate tensions in the region as it is designed to avoid casualties. It may include a cyber attack or a strike on a target in Tehran, according to the Washington Post. With Iran promising to retaliate “within seconds” though, the risks are still very elevated and oil markets wary.

  • Israel’s war cabinet said that an attack of that magnitude can’t go unanswered with defence minister Gallant expressing that “Israel won’t accept an equation in which Iran responds with a direct attack every time Israel strikes targets in Syria”. He also told US defence minister Austin that Israel has no choice given Iran’s use of missiles.
  • The timing of a response is unclear but war cabinet minister Gantz already said that it will be when the time is right.
  • The UN will halt inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities given the risk of an Israeli strike, according to The Australian.
  • Iran has been clear with its threats saying that any attacks on its people or assets would be met with an immediate response rather than waiting. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission Amouei warned it would use “a weapon it has never before used”.
  • Iran says that it is going to be tough on Israel but as it achieved its goal on the weekend, it views the issue “concluded” unless Israel retaliates.
  • China spoke with Iran and has agreed that Iran’s response was limited and it has the right to self-defence given the attack on its embassy. It believes that Iran will avoid “further instability”.

Biden With Early Electoral College Edge According To Betting Markets

President Biden has an early electoral college vote advantage over former President Donald Trump, according to a new tracker of betting and prediction markets provided by Election Betting Odds.

  • According to the tracker, which will update with additional data as it become available, Biden is on track to win 276 electoral college votes.
  • The Hill's electoral college tracker, based on data from Decision Desk HQ, shows that Biden has a slight advantage over Trump but the winner will ultimately be determined by results from seven toss-up states.

Figure 1: Electoral Votes – Estimate 276 (Biden) – 262 (Trump), 270 Needed to Win

Source: Election Betting Odds

Biden Reverses Trump's Early Polling Advantage, NYT

A new survey from the New York Times/Siena College has found that, “President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump’s early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age.”

  • NYT notes that Biden and Trump are now virtually tied, with Trump, “holding a 46 percent to 45 percent edge. That is an improvement for Mr. Biden from late February, when Mr. Trump had a sturdier 48 percent to 43 percent lead just before he became the presumptive Republican nominee.”
  • Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn writes: “You can't exactly call a one-point deficit the 'Biden comeback, but the result adds to a growing list of polls finding him inching up over the last month."
  • Axios notes: “The main reason Biden ticked up in Times/Siena appears to be his improved standing among his 2020 voters — 89% now vs. 83% in February.”

Figure 1: “If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden and Donald Trump?”

Source New York Time/Siena College

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