-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
-
About Us
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI RBA WATCH: Bullock Stresses Data, Switches To Neutral Tone
RBA Governor Bullock stresses the importance of data for the cash rate's future path.
MNI BRIEF: BOJ Ends Negative Rate, YCC, Maintains JGB Buying
The BOJ has decided to exit negative rates and end yield curve control.
MNI PBOC Watch: LPR To Hold, Idle Funds Targeted
The PBOC will take measures to channel ample liquidity down to the economy as interbank leverage rises.
MNI Bank Indonesia Preview – March 2024: IDR Needs Fed To Ease First
Bank Indonesia (BI) is unanimously expected to leave rates at 6.0% at its March 20 meeting given the persistence of a high level of “global uncertainty” and little new domestic information since the last decision.
MNI BCB Preview - March 2024: Focus On Potential Guidance Adjustment
All surveyed analysts believe that the Copom will continue the easing cycle with another 50bp cut, bringing the Selic rate down to 10.75%.
BER Releases Inflation Expectations Survey, ANC & MK Party Face Off In Court
- The Bureau for Economic Research (BER) will release its quarterly inflation expectations survey at the top of the hour. These reports are one of the factors monitored by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), which wants to anchor inflation expectations at the +4.5% Y/Y mid-point of its inflation target range. The latest CPI report will cross the wires tomorrow morning.
- The African National Congress (ANC) and the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party will cross sabres in the Electoral Court today after the current governing party accused the political newcomers led by ex-President Jacob Zuma of failing to comply with due relevant procedures, arguing that its registration with the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) should be nullified.
- US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo returned from a visit to South Africa saying that it has left him "more bullish" on the local economy. In his view, if the country's leaders "are able to reduce those headwinds [i.e. energy and logistics problems), which they have the capacity to do, there's real opportunity for them to grow beyond expectations."
- Israel has asked the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to refuse South Africa's request for new measures to prevent famine in Gaza, describing it as an attempt to "relitigate what the court has already decided and to have the Court micromanage the conduct of hostilities in Gaza."
Support For Biden Weak Amongst Democrats
A survey from Ipsos, released over the weekend, has provided more evidence that the winner of the 2024 presidential election will likely be determined by which party can more successful motivate turnout of their base, rather than explicit support for either candidate.
- The survey finds that, while support for both Biden and Trump is weak within their respective parties, only 30% of registered Democrat voters - who intend to vote for Biden - are doing so because they support Biden as a candidate. 57% of Democrat voters intend to cast their ballot as a vote against Trump.
- Ipsos notes: "2024 isn’t going to come down to Trump or Biden convincing Americans to change sides – it’s more a matter of convincing their existing base to actually vote."
- Betting markets and pollsters continue to see Trump as the slight favourite. According to Smarkets, Trump has an implied probability of 48% of winning, compared to 35% for Biden.
- RealClearPolitics' presidential election poll tracker currently shows Trump with a 1.7% advantage over Biden (47.2 - 45.5).
Figure 1: Reasons for Voter Support for Biden and Trump
Source: Ipsos
Voters Increasingly Concerned About Iran
A new survey from Gallup has found that whilst China and Russia are still named by most US voters as the US’ “greatest enemy,” “references to Iran have grown by seven points.”
- Iran’s rise on the list reflects months of news coverage of Israel’s war with Hamas which has renewed focus on Iran’s role in financing a network of militant groups in the Middle East, including the Houthis in Yemen who have engaged in regular attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
- Gallup notes: “China No. 1 Enemy for Republicans and Independents, Russia for Democrats. China is among the top two countries cited as the United States’ greatest enemy by all three partisan groups. It ranks first among Republicans (67%) and independents (40%) but is a distant second to Russia among Democrats (18%). Russia ranks second among independents and nearly ties for second with Iran among Republicans. Independents (11%) are far more likely than Republicans (1%) or Democrats (2%) to name the United States itself, putting the U.S. third on their list.”
- The report also suggests that, along with softer support for Ukraine, US voters now consider the risk from Russia markedly lower than during 2023 - a voter perception which may impact Congress' ability to legislate new aid for Ukraine.
Figure 1: Americans' Perceptions of the United States' Greatest Enemy
Source: Gallup
Schumer May Have To Move This Week To Salvage Bipartisan Tax Bill
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) may have to schedule a cloture vote on the USD$78 billion bipartisan tax bill this week or risk the legislation stalling permanently in the Senate Finance Committee.
- The legislation, which extends child tax credits in return for some business tax deductions, is currently delayed in committee after negotiations between Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) and ranking Republican Mike Crapo (R-ID) last week failed to reach a compromise which would avoid a re-write of the bill.
- Politico notes: "This might be the only chance remaining to stop fraud in the pandemic-era Employee Retention Credit - something Wyden and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) relied on to pay for almost all of their $78 billion bill... The IRS continues to process ERC claims, essentially meaning that it’s now or never when it comes to trying to weed out fraudulent applications."
- Schumer, who supports the bill, could effectively end the Senate Finance Committee’s role in shaping the bill by finding 60 votes and invoking cloture to overcome a filibuster. There are several GOP Senators who are on the record in favour of the bill so there is a good chance Schumer could successfully navigate a bipartisan vote, should he decide to pursue this strategy.
MNI REAL-TIME COVERAGE
Timely & Actionable Insight on Central Bank Policy
Timely & Actionable Insight on FX & FI Markets
Timely & Actionable Insight on Emerging Markets
Sample MNI
MNI NEWSLETTERS
MNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: USD Rallies Post BoJ & RBA Decisions
MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: BoJ Ends NIRP, YCC, But Maintains Bond Buying
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: YTD Yield Highs For US 2s and 5s Ahead Of BoJ
MNI ASIA OPEN: Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Policy In Focus
MNI US MARKETS ANALYSIS - Stacked Central Bank Week
MNI US OPEN - Focus Shifts to Busy Global Central Bank Slate
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.